The Swiss franc is considered a very safe currency, and it is attractive for investors; even during various turbulences, they prefer to invest in it. Thus, investors cause the strengthening of the money, but his assessment is not correct in all the cases.
In early 2015, in Poland, owners, who have mortgages in Swiss francs suffered a lot due to the sharp fluctuation in the exchange rate of CHF/PLN. As a result, a significant increase in the cost of their mortgages in local currencies.
Experts predicted that these adverse financial circumstances would affect not only the finances of households but also their psychological and physical health. It happened and led to a future decrease in the country’s GDP and a deep internal crisis of the economy.
However, now Poland is in a gradual recovering process; the national currency is fragile, depends on the euro exchange rate, trade relations within EU, energy costs and many other various factors that do not influence global economic mechanisms.
In this context, the Polish zloty is incredibly volatile; respectively, an investor is aware of the risks and does not look for a pair of CHF/PLN as the main trading asset. In the long-run perspective, the instrument is characterized by very high risks and instability. In the short term, it can still be used for high-risk scalping.
It will be imperative for traders to find out that the amount of Poland’s gold reserves decreases annually. Thus the polish currency has a natural loss of the value in proportion to the decrease of gold reserves in the country.
The CHF/PLN pair is generally predictable. Among the economic recession in the Eurozone and the unstable political situation in the world, the euro will lose its strength. In this case, investors will continue to hedge funds in CHF. Respectively, the Swiss franc will continue to increase in price.
Since the EU members are some of the post-Soviet states, as well as Greece, there is no reason to rely on a rapid surge in the euro economy. Therefore, the growth of the franc will be protracted and very slow.
The Polish zloty will show sharp fluctuations. The currency is tied to the light and chemical industries, as these are the primary export goods, comprising more than 60% of all foreign trade.
Also, the situation in Germany will influence the currency, since it’s the largest trading partner of Poland. As soon as the German industry begins to experience the decline, it will immediately change the zloty.
Another critical point is that about 18% of Poles are officially working in Germany. This allows them to earn higher salaries and positively influence the result of GDP, but its actual level will be lower than the estimated one.
This leads to problems in employment, construction, and production disruptions. As a result, the country is striving to maintain a leading position in Eastern Europe.
The zloty exchange rate is also affected by financial news, especially when the national bank rate is announced. When it decreases, the currency weakens. On the other side of the coin, the bank is forced to implement such measures to keep a stable level of inflation.
We can identify more than 100 factors that have a severe impact on the zloty exchange rate. Making an in-depth analysis of the exchange market and the trading pair CHF/PLN, the trader identifies the key of fluctuations and stipulates the plan for future profitable scalping. However, the risk of losing the deposit is very high, and few traders choose this pair.